Define the repeat customer and outcome
Use a customer identity the business can support, and explain unresolved matching. An order from the same phone may need careful reconciliation before it is labeled a new or returning relationship.
Count delivered and collected outcomes under the actual process. Separate placed orders, confirmations and final payments. Pending repeat orders have not yet established contribution.
Include retention and servicing costs
| Cost or value | What to record |
|---|---|
| Collected revenue | Actual mature payment basis |
| Product and delivery | Costs associated with fulfilled and unsuccessful attempts |
| Discount | Reflected once in the chosen model |
| Contact effort | Relevant retention and confirmation cost |
| Returns | Refunds, reverse logistics and inventory recovery |
Do not deduct the same discount from revenue and again as an expense.
Worked example: the loyalty discount erases contribution
Illustrative example in MAD: a repeat order contributes 40 MAD before a new loyalty incentive. A 25 MAD discount and 10 MAD additional contact or servicing cost leave 5 MAD under the simplified model. A larger order count would not by itself establish stronger total contribution.
If the discount encourages purchases that would have happened anyway, its incremental value can be weaker still. Use a suitable comparison where feasible rather than treating every redeemed offer as additional demand.
Compare the right customers
Match product, route and cohort age. A repeat-customer group may contain better addresses or easier destinations than a new-customer group. Those differences can explain delivery performance without proving loyalty caused it.
Create a repeat-order contribution sheet and include cash collection timing. Evaluate the offer after returns and remittance mature. The first-order versus repeat guide helps keep acquisition and later value separate.
Ayoub Mouhachtt
Growth & performance marketing. Explore my working background.
An AI-assisted educational guide commissioned for Ayoub’s Growth Notebook. Worked examples are illustrative; they are separate from the portfolio’s client evidence. How these guides are prepared.